Recurrent, a firm that analyzes electric vehicle (EV) battery health, this month released new data from a study around EV reservations stemming from a survey of active shoppers of new electric car and pickup truck models. The research dives into the most popular models, the estimated manufacturer backlog, estimated delivery dates, cost of reservations and trends on which manufacturers are living up to delivery promises.
As carmakers navigate long pre-order lists and wait times, Recurrent partnered with AAA Washington to survey more than 200 shoppers who had at least one EV reservation. Participants were asked which EVs they have reserved with a down payment and which they actually intend to buy. The survey results found several interesting takeaways, including:
- Truck buyers are hedging their bets with multiple reservations. There’s a trend of over-ordering happening for electric trucks, as no one is sure which manufacturer will deliver these new trucks. About 89% of Tesla Cybertruck reservations overlap with another truck pre-order, and 100% of F-150 and Silverado reservation holders also pre-ordered another vehicle on this list.
- Refundable reservation deposits make it easier to keep options open. In one example, a single shopper has pre-ordered the GMC Hummer EV, BMW iX, Chevrolet Silverado, Nissan Ariya and VW ID.4, but only reports they are likely to redeem the BMW.
- More electric car models allow shoppers to be selective. While pre-orders for electric trucks tend to overlap across multiple new offerings, there are more standalone reservations for cars like the Subaru Solterra, Kia EV6 and Hyundai Ioniq 5. These shoppers want the car they ordered and are reserving their place in line to buy it.
- Tesla brand loyalty runs deep. Recurrent found many families have gone all-in on Tesla. About 50% of those who have reserved a Tesla Cybertruck and a Tesla car model plan to redeem both.
- Tesla reservations do not overlap with other brands. For car buyers who reserved a Ford F-150, Rivian or Chevrolet Silverado, chances are good that they may also have reserved a Tesla Cybertruck. But, if they are interested in any of the new, non-truck options on this list, there is almost no overlap with the Tesla brand. There is a chasm between non-Tesla cars and Tesla reservations.
“We knew that 2022 would be the year of the electric truck, and the year has not disappointed us, at least as far as pre-orders go,” said Scott Case, CEO and co-founder of Recurrent, in a news release. “But I’m also taking pre-order number claims by manufacturers with a grain of salt, because clearly not all of those orders are solid. Shoppers should not be scared off by long pre-order waits if they know the vehicle you want.”
EVs are quickly rising in popularity, and the U.S. is preparing for a boom in sales as the country makes further commitments to divest from oil and gas. The Biden Administration is pushing ahead by committing resources to build up the required infrastructure, and oil and gas companies are looking at ways they can protect their futures all while auto manufacturers are making stronger pledges to an EV future. However, the supply chain has been hit hard, as the ongoing Ukraine and Russia war has slowed down production on parts from the area and other metal prices continue to climb.