Calstart: Zero-Emission Heavy-Duty Truck Market Expected to Grow

The biggest zero-emission trucks are hitting the market at an accelerating rate.

The number of available and announced models of new zero-emissions heavy-duty trucks is expected to grow from 40 to 71 in the United States, Canada, China and Europe between 2020 and 2023 - a nearly 80% increase over just three years, according to data from Calstart’s online tool, Zero-Emission Technology Inventory (ZETI), which tracks the growth of zero-emission commercial vehicles globally.

During the same time period, the number of zero-emission commercial vehicles on the market in the United States, Canada, China and Europe is expected to grow nearly 30%, with 468 models on the market in 2020 and 606 models projected for 2023, Calstart officials said in a press release.

“The pace of battery technology advancement is happening faster than we thought and battery costs are also dropping faster than anticipated. As a result, newly available zero-emission trucks generally and heavy-duty zero-emission trucks in particular are shifting toward commercialization at an accelerating pace,” said Cristiano Façanha, global director of Calstart’s Global Commercial Vehicle Drive to Zero program and campaign. The ZETI tool is part of that program.

Most commercially available zero-emission heavy-duty trucks are capable of driving 300 kilometers (186 miles) on a single charge. This range is ideal for urban deliveries, drayage and other operations that do not require extreme ranges. Additionally, zero-emission heavy-duty trucks, capable of going 600 kilometers (about 373 miles) on a single charge, will be available this year and in 2022. In 2023, those with ranges of more than 1000 kilometers (621 miles) will be on the market, Calstart officials said.

Additional data findings from ZETI:

•  The overall number of available zero-emission commercial vehicle models is on a strong upward trajectory globally despite the economic impacts of the global pandemic. The number of available models is projected to rise from 468 in 2020, to 557 in 2021, to 594 in 2022, to 606 in 2023.
• When compared to the global market, the United States will see an even sharper uptick in available zero-emission heavy-duty truck models on the market  from 2020-2023, rising 250% from just 8 models in 2020 to 28 models on the market in 2023.
• 114 out of 119 of zero-emission medium-duty trucks on the market have ranges that hover around or higher (>80 miles) than the average needed range.
• 67 out of 119 of zero-emission medium-duty trucks now on the market average ranges (>150 miles) that are well over the average range these vehicles travel in a day.

“In addition to improvements in model availability as well as range, we are also seeing costs come down very quickly for electric trucks,” Façanha said. The latest projections show electric trucks will be less expensive to own and operate by 2025-2030.

Originally posted on Trucking Info